The New ork Times Feb. 16

Italy's Leader Balances Ambitions and Trials

By FRANK BRUNI

OME, Feb. 15 — A short while back, Italy's leading newspaper, Corriere della Sera, ran a cartoon that imagined Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's continuing evolution. In the first panel, he was chief of state. In a later panel, he was king. Finally, years hence, he morphed into a new-era Napoleon.

Within the hyperbolic context of satire, it was a fairly apt commentary on Mr. Berlusconi's outsize ambitions. It may also have been prophetic, casting him as a brash emperor whose troubles ultimately undo his triumphs.

Just over two weeks ago, a court here denied Mr. Berlusconi's effort to have his trial on longstanding bribery charges moved (and thus postponed), creating the possibility that by year's end, the prime minister could face a criminal conviction. That extraordinary scenario would pose a serious threat to his government.

But it also completes the portrait of one of Europe's most unusual and flamboyant leaders, a media magnate and political titan who has amassed, or at least sought, an astonishing degree of power, yet always seems to be dancing one small step ahead of disaster.

He remains Italy's richest man, holding tight to business interests that include three of the state's seven national television stations. Because Mr. Berlusconi also has the ability to exert influence over the three publicly operated national networks, he effectively has indirect control of the vast majority of Italy's national television viewing.

His myriad entanglements constantly — and inevitably — raise questions about the motives behind legislation and threaten to trip him up.

"He wants it all," said Giuliano Ferrara, a conservative newspaper editor who served in Mr. Berlusconi's cabinet during his first, seven-month stint as prime minister in 1994. "He thinks that without some of his power, he would lose all of his power."

Although Mr. Ferrara supports Mr. Berlusconi and praises many aspects of his government, he said: "He shouldn't be in politics, as the owner of three media channels. He should become less rich than he is."

But, he added, Italy is an offbeat democracy that accommodates political eccentricities, and Mr. Berlusconi is who he is.

Mr. Berlusconi's keen appetite has run like a leitmotif through the 20 months since he became prime minister for the second time.

As he lobbied for government reforms that would eventually give more power to Italy's president, he seemed to be tailoring a next job to his liking.

As he cultivated friendships with President Bush and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, he seemed intent on giving Italy — and himself — a less humble role on the world stage.

But Mr. Berlusconi's past and future keep colliding, perhaps because the various strands of his enterprises are woven so tightly together.

His initial entry into politics came partly because he worried about the government's effect on his businesses and wanted to reform a justice system that, in his view, allowed politically motivated prosecutions, some against him. Repeatedly charged with corruption, he has always prevailed in the end.

In the current case, he is accused of bribing judges to gain control of a food company in the 1980's. He has denied wrongdoing and portrayed himself as a victim of crusading ideologues. The assertion has traction with many Italians.

Late last year, Mr. Berlusconi's political allies pushed through a law giving defendants who assert prosecutorial bias a stronger possibility of getting their trials moved, and Mr. Berlusconi's lawyers proceeded to invoke it.

Although their appeal failed, they insist nonetheless that Mr. Berlusconi will be acquitted, saying that the evidence is shaky.

But one of Mr. Berlusconi's closest associates, Cesare Previti, is also on trial for related bribery charges, and if he is convicted, it could damage Mr. Berlusconi.

"It's bringing him back to earth," said Paolo Gentiloni, a center-left member of Parliament.

But, Mr. Gentiloni added, "I would not exaggerate the altitude of his flying, because it was always more public relations than a substantial effort.

There are few better examples of the sky-high profile that Mr. Berlusconi has tried to establish than his peripatetic effort to win a role in the debate over an American-led military strike against Iraq, pledging almost unfettered allegiance to the United States.

In the span of one recent week, he flew to London to meet with Prime Minister Tony Blair, then to Washington to meet with Mr. Bush, then to Moscow for a talk with Mr. Putin.

But he did not succeed in coaxing Mr. Putin toward the American view on Iraq. He also put himself at odds with Italian public opinion, which runs strongly against war, and with France and Germany.

"At the end of this year, Italy will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union, and now he's playing a card that fractures the union," said Luciano Violante, the opposition leader in the lower chamber of the Parliament.

"He thinks with a market mentality," said Mr. Violante, who proceeded to imagine Mr. Berlusconi's calculations: "Who's the strongest in the market now? Bush? O.K., let's go with Bush!"

The prime minister's aides disputed that characterization, drawing attention to his recent statements that he would prefer United Nations backing for a military strike. They said he was trying to forge a consensus.

They also said that Italians cared about nuts-and-bolts issues like public works, tax breaks and pension and labor reform, and noted that Mr. Berlusconi had made modest progress along those lines.

"He's a very concrete, practical person," said Paolo Bonaiuti, his spokesman, pulling out a thick book in which the prime minister's promises, plans and timetable for governing have been compiled.

"It's a way to understand Mr. Berlusconi," Mr. Bonaiuti said. "Every month, he looks at this, and asks, `Where are we?' "

At least two of his promises, however, have not materialized. The economy is worse, not better, than when he took office. His aides — and, fortunately for him, many Italians — chalk that up to a global slowdown and other factors beyond Mr. Berlusconi's control.

He also has not enacted a conflict-of-interest law that would put more distance between him and his media holdings. His opponents, along with many independent political analysts, find that particularly disturbing, citing his potential to control the information that Italians receive.

"He's not manipulating it right now," said Sergio Romano, a former ambassador for Italy to NATO and a columnist for Corriere della Sera. "But he could do it later. It's not a healthy situation, and principles do matter."